Except n95 masks aren't going to do anything for you. You'd be much better off stocking up on Vitamin C - real Vitamin C.
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Coronavirus Pandemic (many threads merged)
- Thread starter Leveraction44
- Start date
Except n95 masks aren't going to do anything for you. You'd be much better off stocking up on Vitamin C - real Vitamin C.
The real worry is that once it starts spreading that it will mutate into a much harder bug to control. That is essentially what happened with the Spanish Flu in 1918. The name was a misnomer by the way for the flu was actually believed to have originated in China and was transmitted by labourers brought over to work in the west during the great war.https://www.history.com/news/china-epicenter-of-1918-flu-pandemic-historian-says
Not to be confused with Spanish Fly.
One puts you down and the other puts you up.
Let's do a little math in public.
For this we will use some key pieces of information and a comparison to the Spanish Flu of 1918.
Novel Corona Virus.......
r0 of 2.5 (most are saying as high as 3.8 now but we will use lower # for this example)
Mortality rate of 3%
It has a 2 week asymptomatic contagious incubation period.
The infection rate jumped 1200% from Jan 1 to Feb 1.
The CDC and WHO has publicly stated we are optimistically over a year away from an effective vaccine.
Spanish Flu of 1918
r0 of 1.4-2.8 with a mean of 2
mortality rate of 3%
Couldnt find contagious incubation period info but doesn't matter for this as containing the novel corona virus will be difficult at best and spanish flu was not contained.
In 1917 the world population was approx 2 billion people. The Spanish flu infected a third of the world and outright killed 3%. In less than a year. It killed between 50 and 100 million out of 2 billion in less than a year.
So let's apply the very similar (if not quite as bad r0) spanish flu numbers to the corona virus.
The world population today is 7.8 billion people.
One third of that number is just shy of 2.6 billion.
3% of that number is approx 235 million people.
Death rate from Spanish flu 50-100 million. That 3-5%.
5% of current population is 390 million.
So, Corona virus has very real possibility of infecting somewhere shy of 3 billion people and outright killing between 235-390 million people world wide.
Applying the 1200% increase in cases per month (not even using the even scarier r0 calculations) in 5 months we get to 3 billion people infected.
The Spanish flu came in 3 waves during the year of 1918. Of the 3 waves of the virus the first was the least impactful, the 2nd wave the most and the 3rd wave was not as bad as the 2nd but worse than the first.
All of this is just basic math, fact and a direct factual comparison to the last flu with similar numbers and attributes. Not rumor, supposition or opinion. All hard numbers and historical fact.
Now, all that being said, my opinion is that we have little to worry about from the disease itself in the first world. We will have more cases. A lot in my opinion. But the death rate here will be much lower than the rest of the world.
And let's consider world population. 200 to 400 million people is a big number. But, we have 7.8 billion people on earth. That big number is darn close to a rounding error when looking at the big picture. Out of 7.8 billion even 400 million is a drop in the bucket.
What does worry me is the effect on world economy and fear of the populace. With 3 billion people getting sick and 200-400 million of those people dying this disease has the potential to touch every one of our lives at least indirectly. How do you think the world is going to react when everyone has at least a couple people they know getting sick and everyone knows or has heard of (even friend through a friend) someone dying they have some sort of loose or direct connection to? How will the world markets react with countries being quarantined, trade being limited and 1 third of the world doing less consumer spending?
None of these questions are for me to answer. Just things to think about. Just look at the numbers and do the math. It's easy not calculus. Research the last time this happened (the spanish flu) and look for similarities ad differences. Then apply that to today's situation. All of this information is out there from accurate sources. It's a simple as an internet search.
Whether you want to think about it or not this has the potential to be very impactful to each of our daily lives. I hope they get a handle on it and quarantine protocols are more effective than I think they will be. Certainly not gonna bet the well being of myself and my loved ones on government being right though. I hope that 2 months from now I am looked at as a chicken little. That would make me happy.
For this we will use some key pieces of information and a comparison to the Spanish Flu of 1918.
Novel Corona Virus.......
r0 of 2.5 (most are saying as high as 3.8 now but we will use lower # for this example)
Mortality rate of 3%
It has a 2 week asymptomatic contagious incubation period.
The infection rate jumped 1200% from Jan 1 to Feb 1.
The CDC and WHO has publicly stated we are optimistically over a year away from an effective vaccine.
Spanish Flu of 1918
r0 of 1.4-2.8 with a mean of 2
mortality rate of 3%
Couldnt find contagious incubation period info but doesn't matter for this as containing the novel corona virus will be difficult at best and spanish flu was not contained.
In 1917 the world population was approx 2 billion people. The Spanish flu infected a third of the world and outright killed 3%. In less than a year. It killed between 50 and 100 million out of 2 billion in less than a year.
So let's apply the very similar (if not quite as bad r0) spanish flu numbers to the corona virus.
The world population today is 7.8 billion people.
One third of that number is just shy of 2.6 billion.
3% of that number is approx 235 million people.
Death rate from Spanish flu 50-100 million. That 3-5%.
5% of current population is 390 million.
So, Corona virus has very real possibility of infecting somewhere shy of 3 billion people and outright killing between 235-390 million people world wide.
Applying the 1200% increase in cases per month (not even using the even scarier r0 calculations) in 5 months we get to 3 billion people infected.
The Spanish flu came in 3 waves during the year of 1918. Of the 3 waves of the virus the first was the least impactful, the 2nd wave the most and the 3rd wave was not as bad as the 2nd but worse than the first.
All of this is just basic math, fact and a direct factual comparison to the last flu with similar numbers and attributes. Not rumor, supposition or opinion. All hard numbers and historical fact.
Now, all that being said, my opinion is that we have little to worry about from the disease itself in the first world. We will have more cases. A lot in my opinion. But the death rate here will be much lower than the rest of the world.
And let's consider world population. 200 to 400 million people is a big number. But, we have 7.8 billion people on earth. That big number is darn close to a rounding error when looking at the big picture. Out of 7.8 billion even 400 million is a drop in the bucket.
What does worry me is the effect on world economy and fear of the populace. With 3 billion people getting sick and 200-400 million of those people dying this disease has the potential to touch every one of our lives at least indirectly. How do you think the world is going to react when everyone has at least a couple people they know getting sick and everyone knows or has heard of (even friend through a friend) someone dying they have some sort of loose or direct connection to? How will the world markets react with countries being quarantined, trade being limited and 1 third of the world doing less consumer spending?
None of these questions are for me to answer. Just things to think about. Just look at the numbers and do the math. It's easy not calculus. Research the last time this happened (the spanish flu) and look for similarities ad differences. Then apply that to today's situation. All of this information is out there from accurate sources. It's a simple as an internet search.
Whether you want to think about it or not this has the potential to be very impactful to each of our daily lives. I hope they get a handle on it and quarantine protocols are more effective than I think they will be. Certainly not gonna bet the well being of myself and my loved ones on government being right though. I hope that 2 months from now I am looked at as a chicken little. That would make me happy.
Some scary numbers ... Comparing to the 1918 Spanish Flu
Using only a 3% Mortality Rate
Using only a 3% Mortality Rate
And we are not slowing down.... Deaths again outpacing Recoveries
Math was never my strong suit, but that looks like a 50% mortality rate.
No but fruit is always good. I'm saying don't waste your money on that OTC pill crap that has probably been sitting there for who knows how long. Vitamin C will lose it's effectiveness over time so we always keep extra in the freezer.
Personally I prefer powdered V-C because it's easier on your stomach, and we get our's here: https://www.lifeextension.com/vitamins-supplements/item00084/buffered-vitamin-c-powder
Now here's my story with V-C, and hopefully this will help some folks because there is no effort to educate the public from either the government or the medical industry.
And no I'm not an anti-vaxxer so let me stop any ignorant fool that thinks they're going to chime in right there. And I am not advocating eschewing modern medicine at all - just don't abuse it. Now back to the story...
My wife and I had a child a little later in life, and although we were always relatively healthy, we had no built up immunity to child illnesses. I never really got the flu, but every other year I used to get a very bad case of bronchitis. And I'd catch a couple of colds each year, and then we had our son, it became much worse. I started researching it, and I found out that the government's recommended daily allowance for V-C, and other vitamins, are pretty much a joke. I believe the government recommendation is around 400 MGs per day, and the Mayo clinic is even lower. Yet your body expels Vitamin C as it gets too much. I personally take between 6 - 8,000 MGs every day. If someone in the family gets sick, which is usually just my son for very short periods of time, then I take 10 - 12,000 MGs per day.
Since I started taking V-C regularly about 5 years ago, I have had one minor cold, and that's it. Same for my wife. In the last 3 years, my young son has had the flu, bacterial pneumonia, and the flu. Each time he was over the worst of it in 2 - 3 days, and when we took him to the doctor, they said he's fine, nothing we can do for him, take him home.
Look up V-C bowel tolerance formula and figure out how much your body needs. When your stomach starts gurgling and you start letting out the most awful farts you've ever smelled, then it's time to stop. Otherwise you're going to have a blow out on the toilet, the likes of which you've never seen. A krystal cheese pack combined with a 12 pack of beer ain't got nuthin on this.
That's about the only known side effect you will have because your body expels it. They did some other study years ago with V-C, and some people got kidney stones, but they could never directly attribute it to V-C. You don't have to take as much as I do, but personally I think people should get at least 1K MGs per day.
<--- Not a doctor, nor do I play one on the interwebz. I'm just a guy who hates getting sick.
