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Inverted yield curve?

Thread in 'Finance / Investing' started by Spas-12 Owner, Dec 6, 2018.

  1. Spas-12 Owner

    Spas-12 Owner The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    $$.JPG

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-yieldcurve-explainer-idUSKBN1O50GA

    Any body have any other sources?

    Do you think it will be wrong or are we going back into a recession or worse this time?


    "This week, the yield curve showed evidence of inverting for the first time in more than a decade when the yield on 5-year notes dropped below those for 2-year and 3-year securities.
    The rest of the curve still has an upward slope, although the curve overall has been flattening for some time."

    "Yield curve inversion is a classic signal that a recession is coming.
    The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time."
     
  2. TheGman

    TheGman The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    In for answers. I have been watching and listening to CNBC for commentary , its mixed.
     
  3. Spas-12 Owner

    Spas-12 Owner The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    Since the past is a reflection of the future, It appears we have just over a year before We get into another mess.
     
  4. Porter Rockwell

    Porter Rockwell ODT Junkie! Supporter

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    Looking at the Macro view of our economy - The Tax cuts are are fueling increased profits for businesses and we are getting very near full employment. I expect Trump to come up with some sort of deal with the Chinese in the next 6 months. Trump is a prideful and arrogant man and a bit narcissistic. I am betting on that. He knows if the stock market and the economy falters, if he doesn’t get blue collar jobs growing again in America and manufacturing growing- he knows he won’t get re-elected and he and his economic policies will be labeled a failure.

    With the Democrats in the house, they will probably pass an enormous “infrastruture” bill which Trump wil sign and delight unions across America. Companies like CAT Ford United Rentals will benefit from a large infrastructure bill.

    For all of the above reasons... I think this downturn is a good opportunity to buy stocks in strong companies. I like Apple- Disney- CAT- URI- JNJ

    The inversion of the yield curve is pause for serious concern however as big money is moving out of the market and into the 10 year. But I’m a bull at heart and always regret not buying when things were low.
     
    Spas-12 Owner and sparked1 like this.
  5. Porter Rockwell

    Porter Rockwell ODT Junkie! Supporter

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    Also oil and gas prices continue to decline. Does anyone think that will be the case long term? May be a great opportunity to buy some SLB- XOM- COP- and others. some of these have nice strong dividends too. Of course, oil and gas prices can continue to decline- so ya got to be brave or stupid or both - lol
     
  6. 500mag

    500mag FREE MEN DO NOT ASK PERMISSION TO BEAR ARMS Supporter

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    I'm not sure what your question is, but I will try to explain it. When traders get fearful, they buy treasuries instead of stocks. Since bond yields move opposite of bond prices, the more buying of bonds, the more the interest rate (yield) drops. When the short term interest rate drops below the long term (the opposite of normal) you have an inverted yield curve. An inverted yield curve is a good prognosticator of a looming recession, although not infallible.
     
  7. 500mag

    500mag FREE MEN DO NOT ASK PERMISSION TO BEAR ARMS Supporter

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    Try Fox Biz News if you can get it.....CNBC (Bubblevision) tends to be left-leaning.
     
    TheGman likes this.
  8. sparked1

    sparked1 The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    Either way, it's all mostly noise.
     
    alleycat likes this.
  9. TheGman

    TheGman The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    this week I am in a hotel they don’t have it.
    I need to change cable co at home they dont either

    Thanks for tip
     
  10. Captain Kaboom

    Captain Kaboom Frontiersman Supporter

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    It wouldn't be moving into the 10 year bond. The inverted curve means short term bonds have higher yields than long term bonds. If a 2 year bond pays a higher rate than a 10 year bond, who would buy the 10 year??

    Another point- The fear is contributed by weak economics reports from Germany and China. Now China..couldn't that be a signal that the trade impact may be having on their economy? That's food for thought, but I don't think you'll ever hear that type of comment on MSM.
     
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