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Tesla, Amazon & Google...Buy these stocks and here is why...

Thread in 'Finance / Investing' started by Nuke And Juke, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Nuke And Juke

    Nuke And Juke AEV Supporter

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    I’ve written at lengths about Tesla for some time. And to be clear, I’ve studied economics and it’s my professional opinion most people miss the fact that the economy is continuing to shift under our noses.

    Most can agree that some products are game changers (iPhone, Android, Uber & etc) that has been a catalyst of change. However, the legacy belief in “this is not how investment fundamentals work” within us is blinding us to the change. People stuck in the mindset of valuations based on P/E ratios, Profits, Dividends and the likes are missing out in the next generation of growth companies.

    What do I mean? Flash back a couple of years ago, the oracle of Omaha himself commented that Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla) is too unpredictable and he would not invest in the likes of Tesla. Fast forward to today, Elon Musk now worth more than the Oracle himself, could probably shoot back and say...he wouldn’t invest in the likes of Berkshire Hathaway because they value status quo.

    Not long ago, a group of companies tagged FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) because of their products are so game changing that they needed a brand of their own.

    No doubt FAANG has given much returns to those that backed it.

    Today, I wanted to share with you the future of automobiles. Read this article. It outlines the directions of several companies that are ahead of its peers in automobiles.

    I highly recommend 3 stocks for the next 10 years. Tesla, Google and Amazon. 1) Innovative Products; 2) Ability to raise capital; 3) Large enough to not be acquired; 4) Proven track record of outclassing its peers.

    I’m not here to debate why you think others are more worthy. I’m here to introduce the theory these 3 companies are inevitably the game changers in the automobile industry. They will do to the auto industry that apple was able to do for the cell phone.

    You can argue that Tesla, Amazon and Google are not the future of automobiles but they will fall on deaf ears. I will treat your argument similar to how Motorola argued the flip phone and blackberry argued the keyboard.

    Don’t need to raise your voice or slander these companies. You just need to have a better argument.

    So that I’m clear, I like Ford Stock in the low $6 range. I think they are a hell of an engineering company. However, I feel they have lost their focus. Just as BMW, Mercedes and Ford have done, they failed to embrace the technology era in their engineering roots.


    https://news.google.com/articles/CB...Xpvbi1qdXN0LXB1dC10ZXNsYS1vbi1ub3RpY2UvYW1wLw
     
    Zeake, strongtactics and Bushwhacker like this.
  2. TheGman

    TheGman The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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  3. fast306stang

    fast306stang The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    TLDR.

    I will say I bought 9 shares of TSLA earlier this year @$630/per and it immediately fell to $375 at which point I felt really ticked. Waited it out and sold @$748 and thought I scored big time. Bought other stocks and am still currently in the red bc I stuck at this. Have made money on OAS, TTOO, BNGO, DCP. But I'd kill to have my 9 shares of TSLA back, seeing how it's been hitting $1500-$1730 the last few trading days.

    OP, I'm gonna come back and read your entire post later when I have time. I'm sure it's good stuff...
     
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  4. spencer60

    spencer60 The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    I just read that same article this AM. Interesting, and made me think long term about a lot of where this is going, but I'm not sure that these companies, Tesla and Google in particular, will be the long term play here.

    Tesla is a good example.

    They are incredibly innovative and have single-handedly re-created the electric car market (the first one was one around the 1900s). They certainly have a huge lead on everybody, but at this point I think the stock is way overvalued based on rosy predictions about their long term picture.

    Their main strength right now is in battery technology, and I see that staying the same because it's patentable and hard to duplicate. There's a high barrier to entry which means their batteries could become great differentiators or revenue generators.

    The article above talks about the self-driving car though, and that's where I really think folks are stepping off the cliff on Tesla.

    We've had planes that could takeoff, fly to a destination and land themselves for the last 20+ years. Yet every plane still has at least two pilots in it, and sometimes more on longer flights.

    Why? Perception and legal issues. If a pilot-less plane crashed the company would be sued out of existence. In fact they probably couldn't get insurance at all, so they would never get off the ground.

    The same thing will be true with driverless vehicles (DVs), but x100. Every city, state and town will start legislating about DVs soon, either propping up a local company or restricting them due to fear.

    Even if the technology works perfectly (and it never will) no insurance company will touch a car that's fully autonomous, since there can never be a real 'accident' with one, the car will always be at fault.

    In the end DVs will end up like planes, always having to have a 'driver', strictly for legal and financial reasons.

    Tesla may be able to market DVs to folks like the military, or use them in restricted situations (think of the trains at Hartsfield), but the thinking that they will become a behemoth based on this tech (which other companies are hot on their tail with) is a pipe dream.

    In fact I'm not even sure that Tesla will survive as a car company.

    Almost every major brand has woken up and started putting EVs at the front of the list for new model development. Tesla's monopoly on EVs is going to end pretty soon. Yeah, there have been EVs by the big names, but most of them have been 'compliance cars', using existing models and simply wedging in an EV powertrain.

    The few that were purpose built as EVs were so underfunded and backwards (Jaguar, BMW, etc.) that they never really had a chance in the market.

    The fact is that Tesla is a pretty lousy car company. Sure, the cars are neat, but they are poorly made, difficult to repair and hard to even buy. It took me three attempts using their janky reservation system to even get a test drive of one.

    We're seeing Ford as the first out of the gate with a real Tesla competitor with the Mach-E. You'll notice they don't even bother with the self-driving stuff, they compete just like a normal car, with spec, range, power, etc. I really think once the majors get the fact that EVs are popular, they will eat Teslas lunch in the marketplace.
     
    The Old Jaybird likes this.
  5. CostaRicaBound

    CostaRicaBound Frontiersman

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    I started researching EV earlier this year. I personally like the smell of a carburated late-60s muscle car, but I also am smart enough to know I'm a freaking dinosaur. The shift to a driver-less landscape is coming, whether guys like me want it or not. The younger generation has very little interest in driving, and would rather use their typing fingers and a handheld device to do everything from get groceries to earn a living.
    What interests me most is the tech that these cars are going to need. Car companies will come and go, probably at an alarming rate given the short attention span of today's market and consumer. But the technology required will be universal. Blackberry, for example, (stock ticker BB) used to make phones. Now, they are creating recognition software for AV and AI world. For example, this software is so complex that it recognizes a construction worker waving his arms to redirect traffic. Right now, you can buy BB under $5/share. They've invested billions in their platform, essentially betting the farm on this. A few hundred shares of this won't kill me if they tank, but may be a game changer when the industry really starts adopts AV in a more wholesale way.
    Another is InVidia. I've invested in them and so far have done well. They are a more diverse tech company but are heavily invested in AV software development.
    I completely believe that before I kick the bucket, driving your own car will be akin to turning the dial to change the TV station.
     
  6. Porter Rockwell

    Porter Rockwell The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    Great points OP. The method of stock valuation is shifting greatly and current market trends are magnifying the shift even more. We should be in a recession or even a depression right now, but governments around the world are pouring liquidity to keep our economies afloat. That liquidity eventually finds its way into the stock market where young investors and money managers are eschewing traditional stock picking methods and are investing with an eye toward growth and their new moral code.

    This new generation of investors cares more about the environment than P/E ratios. They care more about growth than profitability. Tesla and Beyond Meat are two examples.

    I think Uber, Apple and the stocks you mentioned will fare well in this new investing environment. I am hopeful Ford’s investments into new technologies and its partnership with VW will pay huge dividends.

    Regional airlines and rental car companies have been decimated by our response to this pandemic, but it’s nothing compared to what autonomous vehicles will do. When we get true self driving cars with extreme range we will program our car to drive to Orlando and go to sleep behind the wheel at night and awake in the morning refreshed and ready for a full day at Disney with no airline and no rental car.
     
  7. TheGman

    TheGman The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    I bought Tesla close to $700 and as you said it fell like a stone but I held and sold at just over $1500
     
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  8. spencer60

    spencer60 The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    I'm an old muscle car guy as well, but that's one thing that attracts me to EVs, they are freaking fast. Even a regular Tesla would blow the doors off of one of my old Super Bees or Chargers.

    Both the companies you mention, BlackBerry and NVidia have probably seen their peaks. Tesla was using NVidia chips to power their self-driving computers, but they went with their own silicon for the newer systems. That being said, a lot of companies don't have the tech competency to to build out a self-driving computer. If NVidia came up with a standardized system that they could sell as an OEM, they could have a nice market.

    That being said, they are the #1 company making high-end graphics cards for PCs, mainly in game systems. As long as they keep that up they will always do well. The gaming industry makes Hollywood look like a Mom and Pop operation.

    Blackberry is a longshot in my mind as well, since it's pretty rare for a once-leading company to come back to the front again. IBM and Microsoft are two that come to mind, but they were a lot more diversified.

    BB seems to be betting on embedded systems running RTLinux. Not a bad field, but there's a ton of vendors and integrators in that space, and I didn't see anything on the website that separated them from the rest of the pack.
     
  9. spencer60

    spencer60 The Hen that laid the Golden Legos Supporter

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    And when your car hits a homeless person sleeping in the road, who will the cops arrest? You or the car? Or the programmer that wrote the code? Who's getting sued when your car bumps mine and neither of us is driving?

    Am I still responsible for the actions my car takes when I'm not driving it? Or maybe not even in it (i.e. Tesla 'summon' feature).

    The problem for DVs and SDVs will be the legal and social basket of worms they open up. That's where the lag in adoption will come from, not the technical side.

    In 50 years it'll probably be illegal for a human to drive a vehicle except in very limited situations. Maybe in 10 years or so we'll see a consensus about SDVs on the legislative side, and another decade or two to sort out all the court cases.

    If you think about how far and how fast Tesla has been breaking ground, I don;t expect anything in the industry to look like it does now when SDVs are finally accepted as road-worthy.
     
  10. Alphacpa

    Alphacpa The Hen that laid the Golden Legos

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    If you really want to find a diamond in the rough, research Microvision. Up nearly $500K since March. Have followed company for just over 10 years. Key component of Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 and company is being marketed for sale now. Due diligence on your part required and this is not investment advice nor for the faint of heart. Check out all FIVE verticals.
     
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