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The CFP Nightmare and Night Terror Scenario

BenStark

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So, I was just thinking after the shakeout this weekend with 2, 3 and 4 going down. There is definitely a nightmare and a night terror scenario for the committee. (Assume all other teams win out)

Nightmare:
Washington loses again
Ohio State beats Michigan
Penn State wins out (Rutgers and Mich St)

In the above you end up with
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3 and 4 is a Pick 2 from
  • The 2 or 3 loss Big 10 Champion
  • The 2 or 3 loss Pac12 Champion
  • Louisville
  • Ohio State

The Night Terror:
All of the above plus - Clemson loses to South Carolina.

1. Bama
2,3,4 Pick 3 from
  • The 2 or 3 loss Big 10 Champion
  • The 2 or 3 loss Pac12 Champion
  • The 2 or 3 loss ACC Champion
  • Louisville
  • Ohio State
Intriguing things that could happen.
If Co loses USC could become a 10-3 PAC12 Champion on a 9-0 streak
Could a 2 loss ACC Champion Clemson be left on the outside looking in while a non-ACC champ Louisville makes it to the dance?
What about a 2 loss Big10 Champ Wisconsin vs a 1 loss Ohio St with a win over Wisconsin?

I feel like the above terrible scenario is completely plausible.

I wonder if the committee members ever thought it could turn out like this.

What about ya'll, what are your crazy plausible scenarios?
 
OK maybe, and WVU possibly, but without a conference championship and 2 losses it's hard for me to say yes.
WI will be a conference champ if they win out. Same with Penn St, unless UM wins out. WVU could be a one loss champ. OU will have two losses, but could still potentially be the big 12 champ(MUST WIN OUT). Just offering scenarios, as you are.
 
I feel like UM, Bama, Wash, and Clemson hold their own destiny in their hands. Win out and you're in.

If UM loses to Ohio and Penn or Wisc wins out I feel like it puts the committee in a difficult position.

I honestly just don't see a road where the Big12 gets in. I think a 1 loss Ohio and/or Louisville gets in over a 1 loss Big12 champion that didn't play a championship game.
 
Also, starting today I am supporting a new feature of the CFP playoff. A play-in game.

If two of the top 5 teams are not power 5 conference champions, the committee can decide to have two teams play for the number 4 spot.

The play-in game is purely the committees decision and is not required for deciding between non-conference champions.
 
So, I was just thinking after the shakeout this weekend with 2, 3 and 4 going down. There is definitely a nightmare and a night terror scenario for the committee. (Assume all other teams win out)
...
The Night Terror:
All of the above plus - Clemson loses to South Carolina.
...
Could a 2 loss ACC Champion Clemson be left on the outside looking in while a non-ACC champ Louisville makes it to the dance?

The possibilities are absolutely insane right now. A new interesting variable I saw today, Michigan QB has either a broken or severely injured collar bone, so he is in question - maybe for the season. I have not followed Michigan so not sure what this really means. If he's a no-go, do they have an experienced QB to take over for Speight at a high level?

On Clemson, I would think they would be far more concerned with upcoming Wake Forest than South Carolina IMO. Tigers should clobber them, but I thought my Cards would do the same. Instead WF did not roll over, and we struggled for 3 quarters until we regained composure in the 4'th. It then became a minor blowout.

Louisville has now completed ACC conference play, with their lone loss to Clemson in a nail biter at their house, and has 2 non-conference games left. So for Clemson to keep their ACC tie breaker against us, they must beat WF. Otherwise Louisville takes Clemson's spot in the ACCCG. If Clemson were to take consecutive back to back losses against unranked opponents this late in the season, that would be a very bad scenario for them. Likewise, Louisville has to convincingly beat a dangerous Houston team and then UK to have any shred of hope to make the playoff. We definitely need help with some teams above us losing again.

In reality, I think Clemson is in good shape to win out including the ACCCG. Pitt is always a dangerous game and they gave Clemson the wake up call that was needed. I doubt they lose again until the playoff. Bama might be beatable, I just don't see it. Too deep, too talented - for any opponent.

I've tried to figure out the B10 scenarios, and it makes my head hurt :)
 
The possibilities are absolutely insane right now. A new interesting variable I saw today, Michigan QB has either a broken or severely injured collar bone, so he is in question - maybe for the season. I have not followed Michigan so not sure what this really means. If he's a no-go, do they have an experienced QB to take over for Speight at a high level?

On Clemson, I would think they would be far more concerned with upcoming Wake Forest than South Carolina IMO. Tigers should clobber them, but I thought my Cards would do the same. Instead WF did not roll over, and we struggled for 3 quarters until we regained composure in the 4'th. It then became a minor blowout.

Louisville has now completed ACC conference play, with their lone loss to Clemson in a nail biter at their house, and has 2 non-conference games left. So for Clemson to keep their ACC tie breaker against us, they must beat WF. Otherwise Louisville takes Clemson's spot in the ACCCG. If Clemson were to take consecutive back to back losses against unranked opponents this late in the season, that would be a very bad scenario for them. Likewise, Louisville has to convincingly beat a dangerous Houston team and then UK to have any shred of hope to make the playoff. We definitely need help with some teams above us losing again.

In reality, I think Clemson is in good shape to win out including the ACCCG. Pitt is always a dangerous game and they gave Clemson the wake up call that was needed. I doubt they lose again until the playoff. Bama might be beatable, I just don't see it. Too deep, too talented - for any opponent.

I've tried to figure out the B10 scenarios, and it makes my head hurt :)

See, I honestly didn't know if we would ever see a scenario like this in the playoffs. Were with 3 weeks left to play (2 weeks plus conference champs) we honestly have about 15 teams with a path and about 8 teams with a solid case for being in the playoff.

Bama
Clemson
Louisville
Michigan
Washington
Ohio St
Wisconsin
WVU
Penn
UNC
Oklahoma
Washington St
Colorado
USC
UF

The list above is teams that need to win out and only need 1 game to go their way.
 
And the Cards just made it a little easier for the Committee. Sorry CardsFan CardsFan

Bama
Clemson
<strike>Louisville</strike>
Michigan
Washington
Ohio St
Wisconsin
WVU
Penn
UNC
Oklahoma
Washington St
Colorado
USC
UF
 
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