If you look at the 2013 panic it took about a year for ammo (except 22) to become widely available again, and another year for prices to come back down. Looking at my SG Ammo history I see 9mm FMJ was back to under $12 a box by early 2015.
That being said, this was a bigger surge and we have a large group of new gun owners adding demand for both range and defensive ammo, so I'm guessing 3 years to catch back up this time, with prices getting back towards normal next Summer.
We are seeing more availability lately, but the prices won't drop until ammo is sitting on store shelves overnight, and we are a long way from that right now. I was at an indoor range the other day and they were getting $70 for 50 rounds of 9mm... And people were paying it with a smile, just happy to be able to shoot.
That kind of extreme pricing could be gone by the end of this Summer unless something else (politics, riots, etc.) kicks in to increase demand again. I just don't see that kind of thing as sustainable for too long.
But we still need to not only refill the entire supply chain, we have to have it sitting there for a while so distributors and retailers will start discounting it.
That was the beauty of 2016, for end-users at least. The whole distribution channel was filled to capacity expecting a huge surge in demand, and then Trump won and none of it showed up. Going back to my SDA orders, 9mm was actually cheaper in 2016-2017 than it was in 2012 before Sandy Hook.
So yeah, my money is on Summer of 2022 being when we should see 'normal' prices again.
If the senate proves that gun laws can’t be passed with a democratic controlled government then I think prices will lower as well. I think right now everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats seeing what and if any will get passed.