Today is a good example of why you have to be very careful in the market

[GFB]

Here you go rbstern
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/jim...cks-to-invest-in-this-tricky-environment.html

I thought Jim Cramer's show was for entertainment purposes only.

 

[InTune]

Guess “bad day” depends on your position. I netted $950 on a put option on Tesla. Not life changing get rich money but for a small gamble dabbling not a bad return.

People buy lottery tickets, go to Harrah's, play bingo etc. How much they won is all you hear. There is this thing called cost basis.... I've been trading the market a long time. Won some and lost some. Dollar cost averaging in diversified portfolio with regular rebalancing is key. Time in it and not timing to win it.

 

[rbstern]

Here you go rbstern
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/jim...cks-to-invest-in-this-tricky-environment.html

Why?

 

[C'mon man!]

Anybody buy the dip this morning?

 

[GFB]

Anybody buy the dip this morning?

Nope. I am waiting on a significant correction. Otherwise, dollar cost averaging.

 

[greg vess]

That strikes me as a bit near-sighted.

Some types of things that will lead to what you view as "taxable" events:

1) Airplanes that would otherwise be flying, parked on tarmacs
2) Major events (trade shows, conferences) being cancelled
3) Hotels empty
4) Ships sitting in ports instead of moving people and cargo
5) Auto and major hard goods factories idled
6) Energy companies unable to sell energy at even a gross profit
7) Lost earnings that remove the ability of businesses and individuals to make spending choices
8) Housing market slowdown (people without a paycheck can't build / buy houses)
9) Jobs that will take a long time to recreate, thereby reducing spending power, not just here, but worldwide
10) Lost income taxes to fed and state treasuries that won't turn into navy ships, airplanes, road maintenance contracts, etc.



You're assuming those things won't happen. I'm saying there's a real chance another shoe will drop.

Yes, some things are different. There are winners: Amazon, Walmart, Netflix. The banking system isn't teetering and people, if they had savings or credit, can still use it. That's an important difference vs. 1930. But that was also true in the late 1960s and early 1970s (durable institutions), however we still had a very long economic malaise and a tremendous loss of value in the market.



I hope you're right. But your way of thinking is familar to the type of thinking that had people ride the market down from April 1930 to June 1932, which was much harsher economic carnage than the October 1929 event.

My x-wife works in the trade show business and makes over a six figure income. In one week they lost 33 million dollars worth of business. They have been hit hard. Not just them but their major competitor also got blistered. Not good!

 

[rbstern]

My x-wife works in the trade show business and makes over a six figure income. In one week they lost 33 million dollars worth of business. They have been hit hard. Not just them but their major competitor also got blistered. Not good!

Consider the businesses that service the trade show world: Airlines, cabs, hotels, venues, entertainers, models, printers, graphic designers, exhibit manufacturers, a/v equipment rentals, union labor in union show halls, restaurants near the venues.

Trade shows generate enormous economic activity.

 

[InTune]

Anybody got any idea when the fake money runs out. Trying to time the market

 

[GFB]

Anybody got any idea when the fake money runs out. Trying to time the market

I wish.

 

[Cadcom]

Anybody got any idea when the fake money runs out. Trying to time the market

Won't run out As long as there is ink and paper.