Market Outlook: M1 Garand Collectibility Over the Next Decade

[falken]

M1 Garand Rifles:
Iconic American military firearms with deep historical and collector significance. As the Baby Boomer generation—the largest segment of Garand owners—ages, many rifles are expected to enter the secondary market through estate sales. This generational turnover may overwhelm demand, especially if Gen X and Millennial inheritors are uninterested or unaware of the rifle’s value. The result could be a buyer’s market over the next 5–10 years, with even high-grade examples becoming more accessible.​

Baseball Cards:
Currently riding a wave of renewed interest driven by pop culture, digital marketplaces, and influencer marketing. Younger collectors and investors are fueling demand, and limited high-end cards can bring enormous returns. While values can be volatile, the category is dynamic and culturally relevant.
Stamp Collecting:
Once a dominant global hobby, now largely niche. While rare stamps remain valuable, the overall market is shrinking. Few younger participants are entering the field, and long-term investment potential appears limited unless a major cultural shift reignites interest.

This comparison shows that while baseball cards are gaining momentum and stamps are declining, M1 Garands are entering a unique transitional phase. For collectors and investors, the next decade could offer a rare window to acquire premium rifles—if they are prepared for a market shaped by generational change.

🔍 Popularity Comparison​

Category	M1 Garand Collecting	Baseball Cards	Stamp Collecting
Current Trend	Stable but aging; driven by historical appeal	Resurging sharply post-2020; pop culture-fueled	Declining steadily; niche historical interest
Demographics	Predominantly Boomers and Gen X	Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z	Mostly Boomers and older generations
Cultural Relevance	Tied to U.S. military history and WWII lore	High — tied to current sports and media	Low — little current cultural visibility
Entry Barrier	High (cost, legal regulations, knowledge)	Low to moderate (affordable entry cards exist)	Very low (accessible, low initial investment)

💰 Value & Investment Outlook​

Category	M1 Garand Collecting	Baseball Cards	Stamp Collecting
High-End Value	Premium rifles can command $5,000–$10,000+	Iconic cards (e.g., Mantle, Jordan) reach millions	Rare stamps (e.g., British Guiana 1c) fetch millions
Market Liquidity	Moderate — active but specialized auctions	Very high — major platforms and broad audience	Low — declining buyer pool, less market visibility
Volatility	Low to moderate — values stable, but may dip with estate sales	High — influenced by sports, trends, grading shifts	Low — values grow slowly, few dramatic spikes
Future Outlook	Large influx likely as Boomers pass on collections; could lead to buyer’s market	Strong short- to mid-term; growing interest among younger buyers	Aging collector base suggests long-term decline

 

[falken]

Norinco AK Rifles (Chinese Type 56 / MAK-90 / NHM-91):
Highly sought after due to their robust construction, Cold War history, and permanent import bans. Norinco rifles were among the most widely imported AK variants until the 1989 and 1994 U.S. bans. Their Vietnam War and global insurgency use gives them high cultural cachet. Gen X and Millennial collectors increasingly prize them, especially pre-ban, all-original rifles. Given their fixed supply and rising demand, Norincos are positioned for steady long-term appreciation.

M1 Garand:
The quintessential American WWII battle rifle. CMP availability and a deeply patriotic legacy have made it a favorite among traditional collectors. However, the generational shift is significant: Boomers are aging out, and many collections will hit the secondary market soon. This could create a temporary oversupply, depressing mid-tier values. Premium examples will remain stable, but the Garand’s broad appeal may narrow over time if younger generations do not re-engage.

Colt AR-15 Rifles:
Colt’s original SP1s and early AR-15s are now legacy pieces, bridging the military and civilian worlds. With both historic and tactical relevance, Colt-marked rifles carry strong value among collectors and Second Amendment advocates. Their ongoing military lineage, modularity, and high visibility in political and cultural debates make them a cornerstone of modern collections, with consistent liquidity and demand.

Popularity Comparison​

Category	Norinco AK Rifles (Chinese Type 56, MAK-90, etc.)	M1 Garand	Colt AR-15 Rifles
Current Trend	Rising interest due to import ban rarity	Stable but aging; WWII collector legacy	Strong demand; valued across tactical and collector markets
Demographics	Gen X, Millennials, AK collectors	Boomers, older Gen X	Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X
Cultural Relevance	Very high — Cold War, Vietnam, video games	Very high — U.S. WWII heritage	Extremely high — still in modern military use
Entry Barrier	High — banned from import since 1994, limited supply	High — CMP or auction-based access	Varies — early Colts are collectible, clones widely available

Value & Investment Outlook​

Category	Norinco AK Rifles	M1 Garand	Colt AR-15 Rifles
High-End Value	$1,500–$3,500+ depending on pre-ban status and condition	$5,000–$10,000+ for high-grade CMP examples	$2,000–$5,000+ for original SP1 and early models
Market Liquidity	Moderate — high demand but tightly held supply	Moderate — estate sales, auctions	High — broad market, both collector and tactical buyers
Volatility	Moderate — values climb steadily, influenced by legal status	Low to moderate — stable, aging owner base	Moderate — political, cultural, and legal shifts drive spikes
Future Outlook	Long-term appreciation likely due to permanent import ban	Surplus-driven softening possible as collections are liquidated	Strong long-term value for early models; wide appeal protects demand

 

[rumrunner55]

You know mosins and K98s were plentiful and cheap and even with people passing on and lots hitting the market its not like a all at once import dump its only trickles. Prices will not dive especially with icon guns...obscure ones will get lost and forgotten and price will tank but front facing guns will not in my opinion

 

[falken]

I agree, they are expensive now, but I don't see any real successful sales at asking prices. What is happening is that collectors are buying more collectables and thus leading to a market pop at the estate wave.

 

[rumrunner55]

ARs will tank and have been for a whole cause the market is FLOOOOOODED and (theyre all the same...yea i said it) the right ak's have provenance and have quirks to them but will go the way of the ar with more and more flooding the market

 

[GarandDawg]

Interesting views on the Garand and I agree. Most of the collectors are still Boomers, many of whom don't seem to be thinking about what will happen to their collection when they are gone. If they are assuming that their kids will want them... most likely not. They'd rather have the money. But not all Boomers are going to die off at once, so it's not like a huge volume will be dumped into the market all at the same time.

That said, the CMP supply of surplus Garands is drying up. They are now starting to reclaim drill rifle receivers and are just starting new production Garands. So the supply of Garands with a service history is limited and not growing.

 

[rgo]

Ian of Forgotten Weapons has said many collectors of historic firearms want the guns of approximately their grandfather's day. So, Garands for many of us now. Remember Wild West guns used to be very popular, but not so much now. In the future, collectables may shift more towards Cold War era guns.

 

[Spikey]

Rinky dink gun show at the Union Hall in Marietta . Could find them for $3,000 ! 🤣😂
Yeah , I was that BORED yesterday , figuired I go to lunch at the Red Eyed Mule , and ended up there. Waste of $15 !

 

[AI-AR10-Dan]

Feeling it was my duty to free as many from the Govt as possible I had as many as 15 M1s when the CMP first started selling them @$500 for a service grade buying the max each year for the first six or so. I had requested a 5 digit, and a 6 digit, 2-6mil SNs, I requested all makers, I got some real interesting guns. Most of the ho-hum Springfields have been sold off. I still have one of each maker and several I rebarreled in .308 (which is a God send) and several match prepped which get shot at a couple matches a year.

In this day and age all gun shows are a joke. If you were able to go to an Eastman's at Elco or Knob Creek Ky show back in the 90s you know what a real gun show is.

 

[Cadcom]

Younger guys can't afford to "collect" them and pay $2000 rent on a one bedroom apartment, $785 on a ragged ass truck payment. Much less afford to feed them or afford membership at a decent outdoor range to shoot at. Popping 9 millie at the local in door joint and couch diving is all this new bunch can afford.