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2nd mortgage

I am going to post some thought in random order, coming from a Mortgage Guy.....

HELOC's are great, if you use them correctly in a stable rate market. We are NOT in a stable rate market. The Feds will continue to increase the Fed Funds Rate which directly effects the PRIME INDEX, which most HELOC's are paired to. PRIME plus/minus lending/bank margin equals your current interest rate. Expect your HELOC rate's (if not fixed) to increase another 1.50% - 3% in the next 18 months. HELOC interest is deductible when funds are used for improving your property, blah blah, blah. I am not a tax expert nor pretend to be. Consult a tax professional!!

Paid off property. Awesome, I am jealous. No bank coming for your property, but it won't stop the gubermnt from coming to your door if you are delinquent on taxes. In fact, there may be some examples of tax foreclosures being accelerated against non-mortgaged properties in the 2000's after the crash..... I have helped MANY wealthy/savy property investors who DID NOT NEED a mortgage, get a mortgage on Free & Clear property for a few reasons. 1. Mortgage money is still cheap, and they can use it to their advantage in other investments. 2. They would rather have a small mortgage with an escrow account to ensure that the HOI and Taxes WILL ALWAYS be paid in difficult times or unexpected memory lapses. The mortgage servicer will ALWAYS pay your insurance and taxes to PROTECT THEIR INVESTMENT. Yes, they will come back to you for the money and may/will increase your escrow payment, but you will always have HOI and taxes paid to the gubermnt!

Statistically speaking, the cost of homes continue to rise over time. And with the U.S. history of inflation continuing to rise fueled by the never-ending printing by the Feds, it will require more of our FIAT currency to pay the bills. But, when you get a FIXED rate mortgage, your Principal and Interest portion of your loan are FIXED, regardless if the rest of our expenses (fuel, food, utilities, etc) continue to rise. We may find that the utilities to keep food prepared and internal temperatures at a moderate level may increase beyond the Principal/Interest portion of your housing costs (Hope this never happens).

Taking cash for your asset is great in theory, but what other investment vehicle would you place this cash in, that would grow more securely than Real Estate during these times of hyper-inflation? Long-term food (as insurance), Gold/Silver, Ammo???? But what else? When you have that much cash sitting, you risk watching it continue to decline while sitting in a traditional bank/investment account. Stock market...... maybe when it hits bottom, but I do not think we are there yet.

Rental Property....... when there is blood in the streets, buy real estate!! People will ALWAYS need a place to live and they will pay gobs of money to do it, regardless of the current financial circumstance. Those who can, will. Yes, value goes up and down. Houses need repairs and phone calls at 2am for a clogged sink are annoying. Pay to have the property professionally managed.

These are just my thoughts and I am not interested in a philosophical debate regarding my opinions. Just sharing and whether we agree or disagree, I wish the best to all of us during these trying times.

As for me..... I just accepted an offer for my home. Bought a new dually and 5th wheel. My wife and I decided to exit the Rat Race, home school the kids and travel the US for a year or two, or until we get tired of it. We are very fortunate that we can continue to work from anywhere in the country as long as we have cell service.
 
I am going to post some thought in random order, coming from a Mortgage Guy.....

HELOC's are great, if you use them correctly in a stable rate market. We are NOT in a stable rate market. The Feds will continue to increase the Fed Funds Rate which directly effects the PRIME INDEX, which most HELOC's are paired to. PRIME plus/minus lending/bank margin equals your current interest rate. Expect your HELOC rate's (if not fixed) to increase another 1.50% - 3% in the next 18 months. HELOC interest is deductible when funds are used for improving your property, blah blah, blah. I am not a tax expert nor pretend to be. Consult a tax professional!!

Paid off property. Awesome, I am jealous. No bank coming for your property, but it won't stop the gubermnt from coming to your door if you are delinquent on taxes. In fact, there may be some examples of tax foreclosures being accelerated against non-mortgaged properties in the 2000's after the crash..... I have helped MANY wealthy/savy property investors who DID NOT NEED a mortgage, get a mortgage on Free & Clear property for a few reasons. 1. Mortgage money is still cheap, and they can use it to their advantage in other investments. 2. They would rather have a small mortgage with an escrow account to ensure that the HOI and Taxes WILL ALWAYS be paid in difficult times or unexpected memory lapses. The mortgage servicer will ALWAYS pay your insurance and taxes to PROTECT THEIR INVESTMENT. Yes, they will come back to you for the money and may/will increase your escrow payment, but you will always have HOI and taxes paid to the gubermnt!

Statistically speaking, the cost of homes continue to rise over time. And with the U.S. history of inflation continuing to rise fueled by the never-ending printing by the Feds, it will require more of our FIAT currency to pay the bills. But, when you get a FIXED rate mortgage, your Principal and Interest portion of your loan are FIXED, regardless if the rest of our expenses (fuel, food, utilities, etc) continue to rise. We may find that the utilities to keep food prepared and internal temperatures at a moderate level may increase beyond the Principal/Interest portion of your housing costs (Hope this never happens).

Taking cash for your asset is great in theory, but what other investment vehicle would you place this cash in, that would grow more securely than Real Estate during these times of hyper-inflation? Long-term food (as insurance), Gold/Silver, Ammo???? But what else? When you have that much cash sitting, you risk watching it continue to decline while sitting in a traditional bank/investment account. Stock market...... maybe when it hits bottom, but I do not think we are there yet.

Rental Property....... when there is blood in the streets, buy real estate!! People will ALWAYS need a place to live and they will pay gobs of money to do it, regardless of the current financial circumstance. Those who can, will. Yes, value goes up and down. Houses need repairs and phone calls at 2am for a clogged sink are annoying. Pay to have the property professionally managed.

These are just my thoughts and I am not interested in a philosophical debate regarding my opinions. Just sharing and whether we agree or disagree, I wish the best to all of us during these trying times.

As for me..... I just accepted an offer for my home. Bought a new dually and 5th wheel. My wife and I decided to exit the Rat Race, home school the kids and travel the US for a year or two, or until we get tired of it. We are very fortunate that we can continue to work from anywhere in the country as long as we have cell service.
the real estate market is in a huge bubble

it was in 2005 when you compare the decoupling between home prices then and the CPI. it corrected after the housing market **** its pants in 2008, but at this point we are at an even larger difference between the two.


Slide1.JPG



thats a graph i just googled real fast. the housing market is NOT going to continue its uptrend and the majority of home values WILL be reduced by 40% compared to CPI pricing (note USD is entering hyperinflation, almost a moot point to use it as a valuating tool)
 
the real estate market is in a huge bubble

it was in 2005 when you compare the decoupling between home prices then and the CPI. it corrected after the housing market **** its pants in 2008, but at this point we are at an even larger difference between the two.


Slide1.JPG



thats a graph i just googled real fast. the housing market is NOT going to continue its uptrend and the majority of home values WILL be reduced by 40% compared to CPI pricing (note USD is entering hyperinflation, almost a moot point to use it as a valuating tool)
So bad time to buy? With rates on the rise will it basically be a wash if prices come down a little?
 
So bad time to buy? With rates on the rise will it basically be a wash if prices come down a little?
i am NOT an expert so all of my postings are to be taken as economic conjecture....but i know what im doing, im sure as **** not buying right now and i dont feel like the real estate industry as a whole is being honest, so much to the point that they actually believe their own bull****

if you are buying to live in then its less of an impact to you since you are using your home and it provides utility but simply owning a home or property is NOT a hedge like real estate brokers will claim (you can hedge yourself with land but in order for it to be of value it has to be used). outside of that it is buying for speculative reasons and i wouldnt be buying anything expecting it to go up in value when everything is on the downturn

short of it is i am not clairvoyant but i dont see this uptrend continuing and the tamp down will occur. if rates correct then the longevity of the mortgage should decrease as well but i suspect the banks like having people locked into 30 year debts versus not. so buy the home if you are going to live in it for years and use it but if you are buying to simply "upgrade" or take advantage of the price hikes id think you will lose your ass.
 
So bad time to buy? With rates on the rise will it basically be a wash if prices come down a little?
With a rising rate market like we are in now, I am seeing people "Double Down" on buying. Meaning, they are getting more aggressive with the removal of contingencies as well as increasing their offers. This is because people are losing affordability every week with the rates increasing. They have to secure housing NOW or they will have to sacrifice sales price in order to keep their payments "affordable". Throw in the end of school, summer break and beginning of school paradox...... people will be wanting to move and acquire their new home ASAP to get their kids registered in the new school before it starts, etc.

NOT an endorsement to buy or not buy, etc. Just observation from people/clients I speak with on a daily basis.
 
I will give you a recent example....... I was speaking with a couple looking to buy in the 750k range in March. Reviewed their credit/income/assets and employment, etc. Part of my pre-underwrite process before I give people my "Pre-Qualification" letter to go home shopping. Rates really starting increasing immediately after I initially spoke with them. I sent emails/tests and tried multiple phone calls asking to speak with me again regarding rates, etc. They ghosted me for 2 months until their R/E Agent contacts me for an updated letter.
Couple answers this time. I had to be the bearer of bad news to inform them that rates have experienced the largest 60 day increase in history. For the same sales price, their proposed mortgage payment increased $700.00 per month due to the increase in rates. Though it was a shock, they wanted to proceed. After extended discussions regarding the impact of this change and referencing their comfort level of payment. they finally realized this was not a good idea. They now have reduced their sales price range......

This is happening everyday. However, homebuyers get caught up with emotions in this competitive market when bidding for houses. It is my job to have that "Come to Jesus" talk with them. Some get it and take a step back, others don't. (SHRUG)
 
I am going to post some thought in random order, coming from a Mortgage Guy.....

HELOC's are great, if you use them correctly in a stable rate market. We are NOT in a stable rate market. The Feds will continue to increase the Fed Funds Rate which directly effects the PRIME INDEX, which most HELOC's are paired to. PRIME plus/minus lending/bank margin equals your current interest rate. Expect your HELOC rate's (if not fixed) to increase another 1.50% - 3% in the next 18 months. HELOC interest is deductible when funds are used for improving your property, blah blah, blah. I am not a tax expert nor pretend to be. Consult a tax professional!!

Paid off property. Awesome, I am jealous. No bank coming for your property, but it won't stop the gubermnt from coming to your door if you are delinquent on taxes. In fact, there may be some examples of tax foreclosures being accelerated against non-mortgaged properties in the 2000's after the crash..... I have helped MANY wealthy/savy property investors who DID NOT NEED a mortgage, get a mortgage on Free & Clear property for a few reasons. 1. Mortgage money is still cheap, and they can use it to their advantage in other investments. 2. They would rather have a small mortgage with an escrow account to ensure that the HOI and Taxes WILL ALWAYS be paid in difficult times or unexpected memory lapses. The mortgage servicer will ALWAYS pay your insurance and taxes to PROTECT THEIR INVESTMENT. Yes, they will come back to you for the money and may/will increase your escrow payment, but you will always have HOI and taxes paid to the gubermnt!

Statistically speaking, the cost of homes continue to rise over time. And with the U.S. history of inflation continuing to rise fueled by the never-ending printing by the Feds, it will require more of our FIAT currency to pay the bills. But, when you get a FIXED rate mortgage, your Principal and Interest portion of your loan are FIXED, regardless if the rest of our expenses (fuel, food, utilities, etc) continue to rise. We may find that the utilities to keep food prepared and internal temperatures at a moderate level may increase beyond the Principal/Interest portion of your housing costs (Hope this never happens).

Taking cash for your asset is great in theory, but what other investment vehicle would you place this cash in, that would grow more securely than Real Estate during these times of hyper-inflation? Long-term food (as insurance), Gold/Silver, Ammo???? But what else? When you have that much cash sitting, you risk watching it continue to decline while sitting in a traditional bank/investment account. Stock market...... maybe when it hits bottom, but I do not think we are there yet.

Rental Property....... when there is blood in the streets, buy real estate!! People will ALWAYS need a place to live and they will pay gobs of money to do it, regardless of the current financial circumstance. Those who can, will. Yes, value goes up and down. Houses need repairs and phone calls at 2am for a clogged sink are annoying. Pay to have the property professionally managed.

These are just my thoughts and I am not interested in a philosophical debate regarding my opinions. Just sharing and whether we agree or disagree, I wish the best to all of us during these trying times.

As for me..... I just accepted an offer for my home. Bought a new dually and 5th wheel. My wife and I decided to exit the Rat Race, home school the kids and travel the US for a year or two, or until we get tired of it. We are very fortunate that we can continue to work from anywhere in the country as long as we have cell service.
If you need someone to shoot your guns while you’re gone I’ll be happy to.
 
My home is paid off.I I have keep a second mortgage loan with my bank running for 20 years I never completely pay it off.i think it’s 100 grand I like knowing I can get it instantly.
 
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