On a side note I have seen your thread title as a sticker along the back window of a repo truck not so long ago.
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It is what it is...
- Thread starter lftd&pwrstrok'n
- Start date
I don’t feel stocked up. I’m not sure what is enough, I’m not sure if things will normalize anymore. I definitely am not sitting on 12k rounds of each caliber like I see some on here. I also have a job so I can’t see selling at any price, but I’m not ruling out adding more. I think I have “enough”, but I am hesitant to go shoot a bunch. I guess my hobby of shooting and reloading is dead, but my hobby of collecting is going strong lol!
I'm figuring on 2 years for the current shortage. That's availability, not price though.
The 2013 shortage lasted about a year (except 22), but that was simple demand and it was limited to the US.
This time we have constraints on producers across the globe (COVID restrictions and shutdowns) at all levels in the supply chain, from turning battery lead into bullets to shipping the finished product.
And these slowdowns are world-wide. Back in 2013 cheap steel ammo filled in a lot of gaps in the supply. Foreign companies raced to get ammo to the US to take advantage of the demand. That's not the case today. In fact overseas plants may have more severe restrictions on them than US manufacturers do.
And lastly we have at least 8 million new gun owners who had no ammo stored up before this. That's a huge wave of new demand that ammo companies never anticipated. Even without the production issues, this would have caused a 2013-level shortage.
The reason I'm thinking 2 years is simple though... Politics. Even the Dems are smart enough not to push gun control in an election year (2022) and I expect them to lose at least the House that year. That means that they will go after guns this year... And they will also go after ammo.
One of their planks is the end of online ammo sales. They want all ammo sales to have to be in-person and go through an FFL, and this legislation will sail through Congress. This will put a huge crimp in sales and lower demand significantly. And if neckbeards can't flip ammo at gun shows (FFL requirement) that also cuts way back on the speculation that is inflating prices so much.
This would almost certainly result in more expensive ammo, but compared to current prices, it would look like a bargain to new gun owners.
Even if the Dems don't get their way, at some point the 'new gun' novelty will wear off and these new gun owners will stop buying overpriced ammo. This will collapse the speculative bubble we've been in for a year now and bring things back to a new normal, with significantly higher prices but reasonable availability.
Since we've been in this situation for almost a year now, I'm thinking we have another year to go until things stabilize, so Spring or even early Summer of 2022.
The 2013 shortage lasted about a year (except 22), but that was simple demand and it was limited to the US.
This time we have constraints on producers across the globe (COVID restrictions and shutdowns) at all levels in the supply chain, from turning battery lead into bullets to shipping the finished product.
And these slowdowns are world-wide. Back in 2013 cheap steel ammo filled in a lot of gaps in the supply. Foreign companies raced to get ammo to the US to take advantage of the demand. That's not the case today. In fact overseas plants may have more severe restrictions on them than US manufacturers do.
And lastly we have at least 8 million new gun owners who had no ammo stored up before this. That's a huge wave of new demand that ammo companies never anticipated. Even without the production issues, this would have caused a 2013-level shortage.
The reason I'm thinking 2 years is simple though... Politics. Even the Dems are smart enough not to push gun control in an election year (2022) and I expect them to lose at least the House that year. That means that they will go after guns this year... And they will also go after ammo.
One of their planks is the end of online ammo sales. They want all ammo sales to have to be in-person and go through an FFL, and this legislation will sail through Congress. This will put a huge crimp in sales and lower demand significantly. And if neckbeards can't flip ammo at gun shows (FFL requirement) that also cuts way back on the speculation that is inflating prices so much.
This would almost certainly result in more expensive ammo, but compared to current prices, it would look like a bargain to new gun owners.
Even if the Dems don't get their way, at some point the 'new gun' novelty will wear off and these new gun owners will stop buying overpriced ammo. This will collapse the speculative bubble we've been in for a year now and bring things back to a new normal, with significantly higher prices but reasonable availability.
Since we've been in this situation for almost a year now, I'm thinking we have another year to go until things stabilize, so Spring or even early Summer of 2022.
I sold some of my ammo in the last 6 months. Now I wish I did not.
Ammo shortage is forcasted to last for the next 2 years, barring any legislative action, that's how backlogged manufacturers are.
If IMPOTUS has his way, shortage will become permanent.
Ammo shortage is forcasted to last for the next 2 years, barring any legislative action, that's how backlogged manufacturers are.
If IMPOTUS has his way, shortage will become permanent.
I have 20k rounds of 22lr that’s about to go on Gun Broker. It’s all Remington, Federal, and Aguila. Boxes and bricks of 500, 525, and 555. I’m selling in two box or two brick lots with a penny start. It’ll be a true auction and I’m hoping to make a killing. My CCI 22lr I’ll never part with.
I have somewhere around half that many, loose in ammo cans that I had considered doing the same thing w. But I didn't want to deal w/ shipping. I'll never shoot up that many rounds
GLWS
I sold some 9mm at the Bogart swap meet today. Swapped some, too.
Maybe look at consolidation? What I mean is, if you have say, 9mm and .45acp, sell almost all of one and save the other to use/enjoy.
Same thing with .223/7.62x39. Stick to one and sell the other.
Sell maybe 1/10th of what you have and increase that along the way as you feel comfortable. It's not an all or nothing proposition.
Maybe look at consolidation? What I mean is, if you have say, 9mm and .45acp, sell almost all of one and save the other to use/enjoy.
Same thing with .223/7.62x39. Stick to one and sell the other.
Sell maybe 1/10th of what you have and increase that along the way as you feel comfortable. It's not an all or nothing proposition.
