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Most likely SHTF situation.

I'm not a survivalist - just a prepper who wants to take care of his family in the event of any number of SHTF situations. Including unemployment :).

My most realistic scenarios are as follows (in no particluar order):

1. I lose my job - that would rock my world. The side benefit of smart prepping is that some of the items you purchase keep place with inflation and/or go up in value.

2. Our train wreck of an economy continues in slow motion until it falls off the first cliff - unemployment increases dramatically, we see interruptions in basic services, and crime skyrockets but is still contained within the usual bad parts of our cities and neighborhoods. Stage two is things getting really bad with unemployment and emergency state and federal funds running out. Stage three is our creditors selling out of US Treaury holdings and trying to repatriate their gold, platinum and silver holdings (as is happening today with Venezuela's gold and mining operations). Additionally, Middle Eastern, European Union, Pacific Rim and Russian central banks will move off the US dollar as a standard reserve currency and currency of choice for oil transactions. End result - further action towards a police state with passive taxation of your investments and greater restrictions on constitutional rights will probably be the "catastrophe" rather than a complete failure of society.

3. Some sort of wide scale natural disaster- earthquake, major hurricane striking our petroleum industry, or major solar flare activity. All three are plausible, but the "guberments" ability to react may be impaired if our financial condition worsens. BTW, don't discount the possibility of solar flares knocking out electronics and communications. It's happened three times in the past hundred years, and our dependency on our electronic infrastructure is a hundredfold of what it was during the fist half of the 20th century.

4. Pandemic - I'm not exactly sure of how plausible this is. An unexpected flu virus seems most likely, but it would have to be awfully fast moving to get past the WHO and government monitoring programs. Governments and the medical profession are much more likely to stop the spread of such a pandemic unlike the flu that killed millions worldwide in the early 20th centruy.

5. EMP attack - this is on the books as a possibility in the government's war scenarios. Same effect as a solar flare except the requirement of the earth needing to be in the path of that stream of energy is replaced by the calculated precision of a nuclear detonation. Current theory says there a number of countries that could use EMPs as a false flag scenario. Ex-military, ex-intelligence and think tanks have repeatedly warned about this scenario. There is very little collateral damage and the attacker doesn't need to commit extensive military resources to make this happen. Basically, you're in your office and a small nuclear weapon designed to produce a massive EMP effect is detonated at high altitude - you wouldn't even notice it. From horizon to horizon, all unshielded electronics goes dead including computers, cell phones, cars, radios, banking systems, law enforcement communications, trucking, hospitals, medical facilities, etc., etc. This is the one that has me most concerned because society essentially just stops.

So, what does all of the above really mean? Look at how frequently all of the above have happened in the past 100 years (including a solar flare event). People who are laughing need to read their history. The only saving grace is that they've happened to different countries at different times. Just because we're America doesn't mean we can instantly defeat or prevent anything that comes our way. Can we eventually overcome it? Yes.

Bottom line - I pray for God to watch over my family, and if the circumstances enabling our protected existance were to end, that we would act as His servants and have the wisdom to not just survive, but also help others.

Wow. That is the type of post on ODT that is all too rare. The articulation and description is impressive. You also understand that the first part of preparing is getting your spiritual house in order. Only then can you go forward in a SHTF situation and be a source of positivity. The SHTF episode will separate those who are positive and in order, and those who have the traits of the most selfish and barbaric aspects of the human psyche.

God guide us all.

ps. If I may, I would like to kind of expand upon some of the situations that you mention. Probably tomorrow.
 
Chris Mac- great post! Very well laid out and thoughtfully presented. As grandchessboard mentioned, this is all too rare an occurance. I would like to make two modifications to your list:

1st, regarding a potential pandemic. I'm not so certain that the government entities you mentioned can actually "stop the spread". Yes, they are very good at monitoring, but stopping it is a very daunting challenge. As we saw during the recent H1N1 scare, they can do very little to stop the spread-mainly because our society is so mobile. They considered but refused to restrict travel and border crossings. This could possibly change in the event of another Spanish Flu type pandemic, or something comparable to the movie 'Contagion', but that would have multiple additional undesirable consequences. The government has wrestled for years with the question of quarantine- how would you enforce it under our current laws? How far would the government go; would they be willing to use lethal force?
Here is a scenario that has vexed government planners for years: terrorists detonate a dirty bomb, spreading radiation. Patients must be decontaminated prior to a) boarding an ambulance for transport or, b) being admitted to the hospital for treatment. How do you enforce this? If you don't, then the ambulance, hospital, and medical staff may all be taken out of the game. Ambulances you can replace fairly quickly, but hospitals take time... and it takes a very long time to 'make' a new doctor, nurse, etc. You can establish a field hospital to help protect the hospital facility from contamination, but that still doesn't address the staff and equipment used to treat patients (in the intrest of brevity I'm not going to discuss protective suits for the medical staff and decon procedures). So, now imagine- what happens if Joe Citizen's wife and daughter have been exposed to radiation... and he is told that they cannot/will not be admitted to the hospital... and that they must stay within the designated containment zone... and he has a weapon (obviously not a member of ODT or the NRA). How far might Joe Citizen be willing to go, and how far will the government be willing to go in order to protect the greater good? I've never heard a good answer, and it is frightening to think that most often the response has been, "we'll figure it out when the time comes". A recent corallary- prior to 9/11, we never imagined that there would be a scenario where the government would ever shoot a passenger airliner out of the sky; that protocol now exists.

2nd, your EMP scenario is definitely plausable. What many enemy nations are pursuing could have a similar effect, but not involve the risks associated with trying to launch/deploy an EMP in U.S. airspace- a sophisticated cyber attack. Cyber warfare can emulate many of the impacts you mentioned on the electronics we so heavily depend upon in our society.
 
Georgia, like all states, has its own constitution, governing body, courts, State police, GBI, local police, local emergency and media outlets. This leads me to believe that the collapse of a federal government would leave our state government intact. Not saying that it is not possible for a situation to be so bad (whether economical or disaster based) that Georgia's government collapses, but I believe that, at least initially, the state would continue to be a state.

If that fails....spam and 556.
 
Chris' list pretty much mimics my personal list of possible SHTF scenarios. One side note though:

I consider the "S" in SHTF being disarray, deviation from normalcy, trials/tribulations, hardship, etc and the "F" being my life/family. If you take the average American and throw enough S into his F, he will cease to be able to handle the extra S, and his F will stop. This is what I think about while I am prepping: how can I prepare myself now to handle any type of extra "S" that may come my way in the future. The S can be something as heinous as a nuclear attack or a devastating natural disaster, but it could be something as subtle also, something that takes years to really throw a monkey wrench in your life.

Now, as I said the "S" can come in a multitude of different forms, many of which have been mentioned already. One that is high on my list that has not been discussed is peak oil, or rather the cost of energy rising above the price we (as consumers, but also the government) are able to pay. That would definitely throw a whole lot of S into my F. Consider not being able to drive the 30 miles you commute to work each day because no gas is for sale anywhere, or it is $10 a gallon and you can't afford to spend that much on commuting. Or, you go to the store and there are no goods for sale, since the trucks that bring it to your neighborhood stopped running. Or, you go to turn on the light switch and nothing happens because the power company needs to save their fuel for the peak usage times (and your power bill is $1000 a month). These things would definitely affect your life in a very large way, and your ability to work through them could mean the difference between living (uncomfortably) and dying.
 
SHTF will happen next year when Obama doesn't get reelected. Expect riots. Jesus that's going to be funny watching them burn down their neighborhoods.
 
I think what ever the "SHTF" is when it happens most of the urban areas will resemble New Orleans during and right after Katrina. People will be sitting on their roofs begging for the government to save them. Just look at Detroit and Chicago they are not that far away from chaos right now imagine after a major event!
 
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