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T-Bills

czub

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Few people wanted to learn more about T-Bills so here's a thread on it.

First of all, this is meant as general information, I am not an investment advisor and this is not investment advice.

T-bills are short term (1 yr or less) US treasury obligations as opposed to longer instruments known as notes or bonds. They are sold at a discount to face value and pay 100 cents on the dollar at maturity. The greater the discount/the lower the price, the higher effective yield you realize.

You can buy them in open market and most large brokers (Fidelity, etc) offer this option but the easiest and most cost effective way of doing this for a casual individual investor is directly from US Treasury at https://www.treasurydirect.gov/.

There you can also find recent auction results to see whether this makes sense for you. Here's a snapshot as of this morning, 8/18.

Screenshot_20230818_081757_Chrome.jpg


A simplification, but it's easy to think of the "High Rate" as the discount and the "Investment Rate" as APY to compare with other bonds or CD/savings.

Now that rates are finally meaningfully above 0, it's important to note the benefit of the state/local income tax exemption. For most here in GA paying a marginal 5.75%, that's another 0.3%-0.35%.

The website is somewhat antiquated but is not too bad once you spend some time there. You make an account, connect your bank and sign up for upcoming securities to be auctioned. As you do that, there's an option to select automatic reinvestment, or you can do that anytime up until several days prior to security maturity. 1-6 month T-bill auctions are weekly.

Normally the yield curve is upward sloping but due to expectations of the Fed lowering rates and slowing economy at some point in the future, you may get the slightest increase between 1 and 6 months and then rates start declining.

One strategy to replicate a HY savings or a MM account is to invest 1/x of the funds you want to invest into a weekly auction of an x- week T- bill. So if you're putting $10k into a 4 week T-bill, you'll sign up for 4 weekly auction of $2,500 each and check the automatic reinvestment box. Within a month you have $10k earning 5.4% (5.7% if compared to a fully taxable savings account) where at any given time, a quarter of your money is available within a week, just log in to stop reinvestment and collect cash upon maturity.

I have some 4 wk, 26 wk and a few in between. 26 wk tend to pay more, but also don't "reset" as quick. Not ideal while rates are still going up but will be perfect when they stop. 4 wk will have the most volatility. Rates dropped early spring when everyone was pulling money from banks and putting them into Treasuries. Then they spiked up in May during the debt ceiling showdown.

Finally, if you connect this to your savings account, make sure your bank is no longer imposing a max of 6 withdrawals per month, especially if you sign up for weekly purchases of multiple securities. The Reg D is gone but some banks kept the rules in place.

Ask any questions here or PM me but please save the discussion on the impending implosion of the dollar and not keeping up with inflation for another thread.
 
Also factor in that they are printing money like no tomorrow. This is a manor factor when it comes to inflation. There are other instruments like I-bonds that will not loose money as far as inflation.

Any investment is better than nothing , as printing money devalues every dollar in circulation and with inflation at 6+% (more in you factor how inflation used to be calculated) your dollars held in a non-growth account is actually shrinking in buying power as they head down this road towards hyperinflation.
 
Since I'm a dummy, help me understand. So I purchase a T-Bill at a 5.2% discount of face value for x amount of time, and am getting a 5.4ish return in that time? So If I'm doing 10k, it costs roughly 9500 at face value with the discount, and I will have 10k ish at maturity? If that's the case it would be better to keep doing the short time, correct? Sorry, just not familiar with T-Bills.
 
Since I'm a dummy, help me understand. So I purchase a T-Bill at a 5.2% discount of face value for x amount of time, and am getting a 5.4ish return in that time? So If I'm doing 10k, it costs roughly 9500 at face value with the discount, and I will have 10k ish at maturity? If that's the case it would be better to keep doing the short time, correct? Sorry, just not familiar with T-Bills.

As interest rates continue to go up, yes, short term to take advantage.

<--- not a financial advisor

The key would be to lock in the best rate for a year /just/ before rates start down.

Clark Howard talks about "laddering" your investments but he's talking about money you don't plan to use in the near future. T-Bills are great because your money isn't frozen for long periods of time.

Personally I'm a fan of the 13-week because it seems to be in the sweet spot between tying up your money and a good rate.

My tune may change when rates start heading down but who's got the crystal ball to predict that?
 
As interest rates continue to go up, yes, short term to take advantage.

<--- not a financial advisor

The key would be to lock in the best rate for a year /just/ before rates start down.

Clark Howard talks about "laddering" your investments but he's talking about money you don't plan to use in the near future. T-Bills are great because your money isn't frozen for long periods of time.

Personally I'm a fan of the 13-week because it seems to be in the sweet spot between tying up your money and a good rate.

My tune may change when rates start heading down but who's got the crystal ball to predict that?
Thanks for the info!
 
czub hit all of the nails on the head that are visible. However, the I bonds, the ones that are alleged to keep up with inflation are loaded with hidden deception and fraud. First of all, the word "inflation" has been quietly re-defined. Second, Inflation is calculated today differently than before: The previous calculation was based on a wide basket of goods. the new method is similar, but it leaves out all the goods that ordinary common folk need to live. Things like food, fuel, electricity, ....things whose prices rise as the purchasing value of the dollar is stolen by the folks who create the fiat currency and enrich them selves in the process. Supply and demand, war, panic, etc do effect the ultimate price of goods but does not cause the printing of money.

With gold and silver, you have a prayer. Fiat paper, nothing but air.
 
You're not the first I've heard say this. What would you spend it on? Property, land, gold, guns, etc?
Anything tangible. All that you stated. Evergrande in China just went bankrupt and there should be some nice contagion from that. We’ve been waiting for a black swan event and this might be it. We’re also waiting on the second coming of Christ so use caution. I have associates still trying to make money in markets and Some are just trying to protect what They have. Pick your poison and stick with it. Good luck. Remember, the most precious commodity that we have is time cause you can’t buy it.
 
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