Cargo Boeing 747 crashes at Bagram Airfield today video

[streetroc]

Looks like a cargo shift to me. Once the cargo shifted backward the airplane went into a power-on stall and the elevators did not have enough authority to break the stall. Im sure the crew recognized the situattion very quickly and desperately tried to lower the nose but the stall was unrecoverable at that altitute.

Notice how the airplane began to bank sharply as the stall broke and the crew leveled the wings as soon as their airspeed picked up. Good effort on their part but they were just too low to recover.

 

[jcountry]

Here is a site with more info about the crew:

http://www.ncr102.org/

 

[AirOpsMgr]

Looks like a cargo shift to me. Once the cargo shifted backward the airplane went into a power-on stall and the elevators did not have enough authority to break the stall. Im sure the crew recognized the situattion very quickly and desperately tried to lower the nose but the stall was unrecoverable at that altitute.

Notice how the airplane began to bank sharply as the stall broke and the crew leveled the wings as soon as their airspeed picked up. Good effort on their part but they were just too low to recover.

Not sure I can agree; a flawed weight and balance would cause the same thing. Mind you, I'm not a pilot, nor do I claim to be, but, if I miscalculated a weight and balance so far out of the operating envelope, I suspect it would have the same results.

For instance, with one particular airline I worked for, the optimum CG for a B747-200 was a CG of 25.0 with a STAB of 6.0; lets say I FUBAR'ed it, I presented the crew with an optimum weight & balance, but my calculations were off (for a myraid of reasons) and the aircraft rotated with a 36.0 CG and a Stab setting that was nonexistent, would it not result in the same??

SOP rolling down the runway (that I have observed) is: Reach V1 speed, Rotate, verify positive climb, gear up.

In the very few moments they had from Rotate to gear up, and while a cargo shift is indeed possible, how can anyone rule out a bad W&B??

I'm just thinking outloud, not trying to stir the pot, but I've been doing this for 18 years and it hits kinda close to home for me, so forgive me if I seem obtuse

 

[poppy926]

As an aircraft dispatcher that dispatches in and out of Bagram and have carried the MRAP's I can tell you that if that was the cargo, and I have been told that it was by trusted source, it was not overloaded. Our 747 could only accommodate 7 at most and that was about 110,000 lbs and max capacity is 250k. They are strapped heavily, loaded by the military under the guidance of a company loadmaster. It's is the loadmaster that does the weight and balance and checked by the captain. Either the load shift was the fault of human error or mechanical. Just to let you guys have a little more insight.

 

[poppy926]

Also from one of our loadmasters, because of the size of the MRAP'S it is not very likely there was a error loading to a bad CG. The way they distribute into the plane it is possible but, he doesn't think it was loaded wrong. His personal thoughts is either locks broke or locks were missed and not locked down.

 

[streetroc]

Not sure I can agree; a flawed weight and balance would cause the same thing. Mind you, I'm not a pilot, nor do I claim to be, but, if I miscalculated a weight and balance so far out of the operating envelope, I suspect it would have the same results.

For instance, with one particular airline I worked for, the optimum CG for a B747-200 was a CG of 25.0 with a STAB of 6.0; lets say I FUBAR'ed it, I presented the crew with an optimum weight & balance, but my calculations were off (for a myraid of reasons) and the aircraft rotated with a 36.0 CG and a Stab setting that was nonexistent, would it not result in the same??

SOP rolling down the runway (that I have observed) is: Reach V1 speed, Rotate, verify positive climb, gear up.

In the very few moments they had from Rotate to gear up, and while a cargo shift is indeed possible, how can anyone rule out a bad W&B??

I'm just thinking outloud, not trying to stir the pot, but I've been doing this for 18 years and it hits kinda close to home for me, so forgive me if I seem obtuse

Bad weight and balance is possible, but from the way it pitched up as quickly as it did I really doubt it. Someone would have to have gotten their calculations so far off that it would have been obviously unsafe to fly. I think one of the tie downs broke during take off and the cargo slammed back into the aft section of the fuselage. Its going to be almost impossible to tell for sure after the crash and fireball.

I am a pilot, but have never flown anything as big as a 747. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

 

[AirOpsMgr]

Bad weight and balance is possible, but from the way it pitched up as quickly as it did I really doubt it. Someone would have to have gotten their calculations so far off that it would have been obviously unsafe to fly. I think one of the tie downs broke during take off and the cargo slammed back into the aft section of the fuselage. Its going to be almost impossible to tell for sure after the crash and fireball.

I am a pilot, but have never flown anything as big as a 747. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

Gross miscalculations happen; I recall a loadmaster, years ago, becoming unemployed after he failed to check the lower decks after the inbound LDM showed them empty; flight departed with 5 ULDs in the front and 4 in the rear, none of which were on the w&b.

As I said previously, cargo shift is certainly possible (more likely than lock failure); I can't tell you how many times I've seen incorrect strap placement, straps locked into the seat-track on the floor one right after another without complying to spacing or directional requirements, overloading double-stud fittings ..... you name it.

 

[jcountry]

I think they will figure it out eventually. It was an American carrier, and I bet the FDR is still OK. Could always be some kind of strange trim runaway or something, but if so, the FDR will reveal it.