Bitcoin anyone? Crypto?

[GC Josh]

I have to disagree that "most voters have no clue what the bitcoin and crypto-currency are."
Five years ago, sure. BTC is a household term now, though. I see TV commercials all the time for companies accepting crypto / advertising crypto / credit cards that reward in BTC, etc.

I have a question for all the BTC puritans.

Current BTC market cap is $1.3T, meaning there are roughly 19.56M coins in circulation. Max supply is 21M.
There's around $90 trillion dollars in easily accessible money globally (cash, banking accounts, investments that are liquid, etc.).
This means that roughly 1.5% of the global currency supply is invested into BTC. What do you foresee for future growth as awareness grows, the dollar inflates, and things like NFTs and the metaverse continue to become more mainstream?

5%? 10%? 20%?
At 10%, you'd be looking at $428K / BTC.

 

[Cohutta68]

Your thought process and writing are all very good-excellent. I agree with everything except buying in today. I said before that I need to watch the trading.

So far, the bid-ask looks good on BITO (the ETF). It's a two cents spread. It seems to be normal. 39.26 USD -0.64 (-1.60%) past 5 days.

So, it trades at around $39-$40 in the biggest bull market in history (the S&P 500 is up 25% this year, and up 105% in the last 4.5 years).

I'd like to see how it correlates with stocks (and safe bonds) during a Bad Stock Market Correction? It should go up? During recent corrections since 1987, everything went down except good-rated bonds.

Do you think the Bitcoin will hold value in a bad market? And why?

I wont pretend to know how crypto will act in a bad stock market environment yet.

But I do believe total market cap of crypto will continue to climb greatly. There could be a large curve of market entry at some point.

I think we are still in the very early stages. In fact I dont think crypto will ever go away.

I believe this future increase of market cap will ultimately drive up the price. Likely substantially. BTC and some others (but I dont know which ones). BTC being a limited supply should beat out all fiat currencies.

Only a small percentage of people are currently in crypto. As younger generations get in, tech and access continues to improve, etc, I feel we will see a lot of new buyers into the crypto market. Driving prices and adoption up.

 

[Cohutta68]

I have to disagree that "most voters have no clue what the bitcoin and crypto-currency are."
Five years ago, sure. BTC is a household term now, though. I see TV commercials all the time for companies accepting crypto / advertising crypto / credit cards that reward in BTC, etc.

I have a question for all the BTC puritans.

Current BTC market cap is $1.3T, meaning there are roughly 19.56M coins in circulation. Max supply is 21M.
There's around $90 trillion dollars in easily accessible money globally (cash, banking accounts, investments that are liquid, etc.).
This means that roughly 1.5% of the global currency supply is invested into BTC. What do you foresee for future growth as awareness grows, the dollar inflates, and things like NFTs and the metaverse continue to become more mainstream?

5%? 10%? 20%?
At 10%, you'd be looking at $428K / BTC.

I agree here. I would not be surprised to see 30% or higher in 10 years.
Not saying that will happen, but I do see it as a worthwhile risk.

 

[Cohutta68]

I laugh at any reference to FDIC. Given a banking/monetary collapse, do you really think your nest egg is going to be replaced by the very people who were asleep at the wheel, dare I say the very people who orchestrated the collapse, and with the very currency that collapsed? FDIC is a feel-good gimmick, nothing more. You know where you can put that FDIC insurance....

If you want to keep your money under your mattress because it makes you feel in control, go ahead. If you want to keep you diminishing-value cash in a bank that will slowly pilfer from you, for the sake of some non-existent "insurance"? Go ahead. I will realize that I can make my money work just as hard as I do, often times more so. I will gladly place investments in crypto because right now it is making me a LOT of $$, and when the signals start telling me to get off the ship, I will take my profits and look for another opportunity.

But hanging my hat on FDIC insurance is like putting a yard sign in front of your house saying you have "XYZ Alarm System" and fully expecting that will protect you from break-ins.

Agree completely.
After some time, you will get your (up to 250k) of freshly deflated currency returned. In hyper-inflationary times, that may not buy you a bicycle.

 

[GA 1911]

I wont pretend to know how crypto will act in a bad stock market environment yet.

But I do believe total market cap of crypto will continue to climb greatly. There could be a large curve of market entry at some point.

I agree. The large curve may help you or hurt you.

I still think that a period of panic selling will test the crypto guys. It's like the old Clash song of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?"

I think all prices will correct next year with the higher inflation numbers. 2022 will show the winners and losers, and I plan to be on the winner side with no crypto exposure.

You guys are still living on a "Living on a Prayer" which is a Bon Jovi song. Good Luck.

Living on a Prayer

My asset allocation is good with a normal panic. My portfolio is at a 18 P/E which is a 5.55% earnings gain. It also has a 2.00% dividend gain. It has a good book value/price ratio.

How do you guys value your crypto exposure?

 

[Animal_Mother]

I never make predictions because history has shown that to be a futile exercise.

I think all prices will correct next year with the higher inflation numbers. 2022 will show the winners and losers, and I plan to be on the winner side with no crypto exposure.

You guys are still living on a "Living on a Prayer" which is a Bon Jovi song. Good Luck.

Living on a Prayer

Dont be salty towards all the people making a killing with crypto there Nostradamus.

 

[GA 1911]

Dont be salty towards all the people making a killing with crypto there Nostradamus.

I am just stating the obvious risk.

The Bitcoin went from a new high of $68,722 five days ago to 57,857.20 USD which is a loss of
-7,455.40 (-11.41%) past 5 days.

If a guy had 10 Bitcoins, he lost $74,554 in just 5 days. Please explain why?

I do own Coinbase Global (COIN) which makes money from the trading of all the cryptocurrencies. This is my safer place to be.

 

[Cohutta68]

I am just stating the obvious risk.

The Bitcoin went from a new high of $68,722 five days ago to 57,857.20 USD which is a loss of
-7,455.40 (-11.41%) past 5 days.

If a guy had 10 Bitcoins, he lost $74,554 in just 5 days. Please explain why?

I do own Coinbase Global (COIN) which makes money from the trading of all the cryptocurrencies. This is my safer place to be.

If he owned those 5 BTC for the last year, he would only be in them about 85k total. So they corrected from 340k to 285k~.
Where is the problem? He still up 300%~.
All cryptos are in a very early adoption and price discovery phase. Expect them to be volatile.

 

[GC Josh]

I am just stating the obvious risk.

The Bitcoin went from a new high of $68,722 five days ago to 57,857.20 USD which is a loss of
-7,455.40 (-11.41%) past 5 days.

If a guy had 10 Bitcoins, he lost $74,554 in just 5 days. Please explain why?

I do own Coinbase Global (COIN) which makes money from the trading of all the cryptocurrencies. This is my safer place to be.

Making some arbitrary point that someone with $680K+ worth of BTC lost $75K in five days is somewhat asinine. The risk remains the same, regardless, and is not relative to specific investment amounts.

Investing, as with many other things in life, revolves around risk tolerance. Everyone has a different spot they're comfortable within. You want to take the safe route, earn your <10% annual ROI and take the crypto version of an ETF play. That's totally fine, but doesn't mean that BTC or other cryptos are poor risks.

 

[GA 1911]

If he owned those 5 BTC for the last year, he would only be in them about 85k total. So they corrected from 340k to 285k~.
Where is the problem? He still up 300%~.
All cryptos are in a very early adoption and price discovery phase. Expect them to be volatile.

You are talking about many months ago. I was talking 5 days.

Can you give your opinion of the value of The Bitcoin in 5 Years? If I buy today at the ask quote, how much will I earn over the next 5 years?