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Good post, especially for a 14 yr old on his momma's computer.
The slow shtf scenario is going to be difficult to determine when to bug out imo, and is probably more likely unfortunately.
Such as when government and police/fire/medical become unresponsive to basic service such as arresting criminals or providing safe drinking water or medical care on a consistent basis.
Trying to log onto the ODT and the website is unavailable. At these times I will start to think the beginning of the SHTF.